Dodgers, Blue Jays to meet in World Series: Prediction, key players and more

From a historical perspective, the matchup in this year’s World Series could not be more different.

On the American League side is the Toronto Blue Jays, a franchise established in 1977 that has attained moderate success since then. The Blue Jays won back-to-back World Series in 1992 and 1993 but had not returned to the Fall Classic until now. They punched their ticket on Monday night, when George Springer’s dramatic three-run homer powered a 4-3 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS.

On the National League side, the Los Angeles Dodgers are not just the standard bearers of the circuit, but the model for all of baseball. They are the first champions since the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies to successfully earn the right to defend their title the following year. The Dodgers seek to be the first team to repeat since the 2000 New York Yankees, whose title gave the franchise a three-peat.

Game times

All times ET. Subject to change.

Game 1, Friday: at Toronto, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 2, Saturday: at Toronto, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 3, Monday: at Los Angeles, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 4, Tuesday: at Los Angeles, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 5*, Wednesday: at Los Angeles, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 6*, Friday, Oct. 31: at Toronto, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)
Game 7*, Saturday, Nov. 1: at Toronto, 8 p.m. ET (Fox/Fox Deportes)

* – if necessary

How they got here

The Dodgers came into the postseason with bullpen questions but have breezed through the National League side of the bracket. Shohei Ohtani started the postseason with a bang, smashing two homers against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, then went 4-for-33 with 14 strikeouts in his next eight postseason games before putting together perhaps the best single-game performance in baseball history: three home runs while hurling six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts.

The Blue Jays survived a sluggish start to the year, surged past the Yankees in the standings, then withstood a late-season charge by their AL East rivals. The two clubs finished with identical 94-68 records, but the Jays won the division thanks to winning the head-to-head matchup. The Blue Jays finished with the best record in the AL, ensuring a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the ALCS. The Blue Jays made quick work of the Yankees in the ALDS before outlasting the Mariners in the best-of-seven ALCS. With the Milwaukee Brewers out of the picture, the Blue Jays have home-field advantage with the next-best record in MLB.

Comparing each team to a past World Series winner

Prior to the Division Series, The Athletic’s Tim Britton did a deep dive on each team, looking for historical comps using similar statistics. He looked at every World Series winner in the divisional era (since 1969), plus gauged how well they did compared to the league average that season in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate.

The end result is a historical team that this year’s remaining clubs have most resembled at the start of October. As Britton wrote, “Anything can happen, because most everything already has.”

Los Angeles Dodgers

Historical Comp: 1993 Blue Jays

Team	W	L	RD	RS+	RA+	OBP+	SLG+	HR+	ERA+	K%+	BB%+
	93	69	142	114	105	104	109	128	109	111	89
	95	67	105	114	100	105	108	110	103	108	86

I had two options: Compare the Dodgers to the 1993 Blue Jays, which I did last year, or compare the Dodgers to … last year’s Dodgers. When confronted with such uncreative ideas, always go for the one that lets you talk about John Olerud.

Once again, the similarities between L.A. and that Toronto team start with the star power in the lineup. The Jays had the top three finishers in the AL batting race that year (John Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar) while the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and this year Will Smith anchoring the offense.

(A former MVP having a down offensive season in the top of the order furthers the comparison: Mookie Betts is like Rickey Henderson, if Henderson … checks notes … was a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop that season.)

Where Los Angeles really stands out here is with its power. The Jays hit just about a home run per game, which was above the league average in 1993. The Dodgers hit a homer and a half per game and led the National League. Rumor has it Toronto did hit an important home run somewhere that postseason.

Oh yeah, and the back-to-back thing, that works, too.

Toronto Blue Jays

Historical Comp: 2011 St. Louis Cardinals

Team	W	L	RD	RS+	RA+	OBP+	SLG+	HR+	ERA+	K%+	BB%+
	94	68	77	110	100	106	106	101	100	106	99	18
	90	72	70	110	100	106	107	106	99	95	111	15

A pretty good offense led by a big-time slugging first baseman about to hit free agency? Ugh, the Blue Jays wrecked this comparison by extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back in the spring.

Nevertheless, the 2011 Cardinals and this year’s Blue Jays have strong offenses built around their righty-hitting first basemen and a resurgent year from a 35-year-old better known for his years elsewhere. That’s Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman for St. Louis, Guerrero and George Springer for Toronto.

Both teams even had veteran pitching staffs without any standout individual performances (save for maybe Eric Lauer’s career year for Toronto). Now, can Ernie Clement or Addison Barger play David Freese?

Comparing the venues

Heading into Championship Series, The Athletic’s Chad Jennings and Stephen J. Nesbitt ranked the remaining clubs based on their place of play, attempting to determine the most raucous place in October.

Is there a sizzle of anticipation between pitches? Are fans on their feet? How quickly will they turn on the home team? Does the environment suffocate the visitors, extinguishing their rallies and magnifying their mistakes? We sought to find out. Here are the results.

There’s no debate that Dodger Stadium is an unmatched experience. The ballpark is gargantuan — average home attendance was 14,353 more than any other club remaining in the playoffs — and the vista is picturesque. It’s a marvelous place to be, and an uncomfortable place to play. The volume is deafening in big moments, as Orion Kerkering found out, both because of the massive crowd and the piped-in music and sounds blaring through loudspeakers.

The Blue Jays’ 54-27 home record this season was second in the majors to the Philadelphia Phillies (55-26). They’ll have home-field advantage in the World Series after finishing with MLB’s second-best record. The Blue Jays and their nationwide fan base have been waiting almost a decade for this moment. If the Rogers Centre roof is closed, it’s maybe the loudest building in baseball. If it’s open, it’s one of the coolest scenes in the sport, with the CN Tower soaring overhead. Either way, the building will be ready to rock with each Blue Jays swing or strike three against the Dodgers.

The key figures of this World Series

Even before his jaw-dropping performance in Game 4, Shohei Ohtani made his mark in the National League Championship Series. He was repeatedly issued intentional walks by Milwaukee in Game 1. He supplied an RBI single in Game 2 and a leadoff triple in Game 3. He is the sort of hitter who must always be accounted for.

Ohtani may only pitch once in this series. But as he demonstrated against the Brewers, once is plenty.

Sasaki has emerged as the solution to manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen woes, but the organization is still sorting out how much of a workload the converted starter can handle. In the NLCS, he pitched in back-to-back games for the first time this season, closing out Game 3 and Game 4. Sasaki had wobbled in Game 1 against the Brewers, but his confidence did not look dented in his next two outings. He throws hard, with a hellacious splitter. When he throws strikes, he looks like a relief ace.

Fresh off signing a $500 million extension, Guerrero put together another solid regular season before coming alive in October. After launching three homers in four games against the Yankees, his bat catalyzed the Blue Jays in two romps at Safeco Field to even the series and bring it back to Toronto. Like most of his teammates, Guerrero does not strike out at an elevated rate. But no one on the Blue Jays makes more consistent hard contact than Guerrero, who led the club in exit velocity during the season.

The former Astro will not be a popular figure at Chavez Ravine when this series reaches Dodger Stadium. Springer haunted the Dodgers during the 2017 World Series, and his seventh-inning go-ahead home run off Mariners reliever Eduard Bazardo in Game 7 will haunt Mariners fans for years to come. This season, he turned back the clock, putting up his best offensive performance since 2019, leading the Jays with 32 homers and a .959 OPS. He is a major threat from the leadoff spot, and will have a few days to rest his sore knee before Game 1.

Predicting the World Series champions

We asked seamheads from across The Athletic’s newsroom to predict this year’s World Series winner. Here’s a sampling of the results:

Richard Deitsch, Dodgers: I can’t remember a team that feels more inevitable than this year’s Dodgers club. The prospect of that pitching staff having a week of rest reminds me of the fear I felt the first time I heard Darth Vader breathe through his black mask. The Empire in 5.

Eric Nehm, Blue Jays: Because my broken Milwaukee heart can’t handle watching the Dodgers win again.

Patrick Iversen, Dodgers: The Dodgers are the Death Star if you ignore the last ten minutes of Episodes IV and VI.

Jon Greenberg, Dodgers: Why wouldn’t they win?

Molly Keshin, Blue Jays: While the Dodgers absolutely dominated and showed their ‘Death Star’ side in the NLCS, I just don’t think they’re going to win two in a row. I think the Blue Jays have the guts to not take no for an answer.

Steve Berman, Blue Jays: They (the Dodgers) can’t keep getting away with this.

Ira Gorawara, Dodgers: Two words: Shohei Ohtani.

Daniel Shirley, Dodgers: The Dodgers have the best player and the best team. They have the experience, and their pitching staff is ridiculously good. That is just too much to overcome.