Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and has backed Manchester United to make it three straight wins.
Chelsea vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Dan Ballard to have a shot at 5/6 with Sky Bet jumps off the page at the prices on offer.
The centre-back isn’t just a threat from set pieces, he’s an aerial menace, a man who dominates the skies like a 747 cutting through cloud.
Ballard’s presence from dead-ball situations is becoming one of the most potent set-piece weapons in the league. Sunderland know it, as do their opposition, but stopping him is another matter entirely. He attacks the ball with that blend of timing, aggression and pure intent. If you squint, it could be Harry Maguire. The two are very alike.
They both play like their forehead contains a magnet to the ball. It’s why Ballard’s shots data is so appealing when it comes to betting. In just 293 minutes of action this season, he’s had eight shots – which equates to 2.32 per 90.
When this plane takes off, you want to be on board.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Malick Thiaw is settling in nicely at Newcastle and is popping up as a genuine threat from set pieces. At 6ft 4in, he’s built like a brick, erm, lighthouse and attacks the ball with great authority – something which is key to finding value in the prop markets on centre-backs. He goes up with the intention of scoring a goal as shown by his haul of six shots in his last five appearances.
Fulham’s set-piece defending has been a worry for a while. Since the start of last season they are averaging 0.35 worth of expected goals conceded from set pieces per 90 – of ever-present Premier League sides only Manchester United and West Ham are shipping more .
And the absence of Joachim Andersen for Fulham, their dominant aerial presence and organiser at the back, leaves a glaring void. Thiaw can take advantage and looks a slice of value at 4/1 with Sky Bet to have a shot on target.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Manchester United vs Brighton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Momentum is everything in betting and sport. Spot the players in form before the markets fully wake up and you’re laughing.
Last week, we were on the right lines with Amad Diallo to play a part in a Manchester United goal against Liverpool, and he delivered. He’s linking up beautifully down the right with Bryan Mbeumo, forming a partnership that’s quietly starting to purr.
Tactically, this match-up looks tailor-made for those two again. Brighton’s full-backs push on aggressively, leaving acres of grass behind them which is perfect territory for pace and precision on the counter.
It’s easy to picture a scenario of Mbeumo spinning infield, Amad overlapping and the net rippling for a second week in a row. It’s 3/1 with Sky Bet for both Amad and Mbeumo to score or assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brentford vs Liverpool, Saturday 8pm
All the scrutiny on Alexander Isak, Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz at Liverpool has taken the limelight away from Cody Gakpo, who is quietly stealing the show this season in the Liverpool attack. He’s the first name on the teamsheet.
In a Liverpool front line full of egos and expectation, he’s quietly doing what every forward should: scoring goals, consistently. He’s bagged three in his last three and at 2/1 with Sky Bet to score against Brentford, it’s clear the market hasn’t noticed the Gakpo hot streak.
Cody Gakpo is 2/1 to score for Liverpool at Brentford
The Bees do struggle with fluid, interchanging movement from opposition strikers, and their tendency to defend the width of the box opens up the perfect pockets for Gakpo to exploit – like he did in this fixture last season where he somehow failed to score despite a bulky expected goals figure of 0.84 from three shots.
While everyone’s watching and critiquing the star attacking options, the smart money should be on the in-form one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Cody Gakpo to score (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sunday 26th October 12:30pm
Kick off 2:00pm
There’s a betting angle emerging with Arsenal regarding their second halves producing more goals than the first. Mikel Arteta’s side are the masters of control and that is seen through this trend. They strangle games early, suffocate space and rarely give the opposition a sniff in the first half.
But once the patterns are set and perhaps fatigue creeps in with decision-making from the opposition in the second half, the tempo changes and that’s where the goals tend to come. There have been just eight first-half goals scored in Arsenal’s last 10 matches across all competitions, but 16 after the break.
It’s 11/10 with Sky Bet for more goals to be scored in the second half than the first.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Aston Villa vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There’s a new ruthlessness about Manchester City, not just with the ball, but without it.
The headlines might still go to the monster that is Erling Haaland, but equally as important is their defensive solidity. Led by the colossus Ruben Dias and the commanding presence of Gianluigi Donnarumma, this is a side that has rediscovered the art of control and clean sheets. The Italian goalkeeper has conceded just four goals in eight games.
And that makes City to win to nil at 5/2 with Sky Bet a bet that demands attention.
The market still gives Villa plenty of respect at home – and understandably so, given their record of losing just one of their last 22 Premier League home games. However, dig a little deeper and Villa’s expected goals numbers in the Premier League are still underwhelming at just 0.86 per 90 – only four teams have a lower average.
City are taken to see them off.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Manchester City to win to nil (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Every so often, a market quietly drifts away from reality and that’s exactly what’s happened with Bournemouth’s goal lines. While everyone associates Andoni Iraola’s side with chaos and attacking flair, the raw numbers paint a far duller picture, especially at home.
Across their last 12 Premier League home games, matches at the Vitality have averaged just 1.92 goals per game. Enter the perfect storm for a low-scoring encounter, then, as in come Nottingham Forest under Sean Dyche.
You know what you’re getting with Dyche, a compact shape, an emphasis on organisation and a gameplan built around defensive resilience. His teams don’t do chaos. It’s all about containment, especially away from home.
At 10/11 with Sky Bet, the price for under 2.5 goals is a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Wolves vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Ah, the six-pointer. Two words that make managers twitch and fans panic.
These are the fixtures that decide seasons. For Wolves it is simply a massive match.
They remain the only team without a win in the top four divisions this season and a failure to show the required intent against Burnley could just tip an already frustrated home crowd over the edge. Every so often in football, the biggest threat to a team’s performance isn’t the opposition, it’s their own stadium. West Ham have proven it this season and it might just be the case for Wolves here.
The hosts look a touch skinny at Evens with Sky Bet meaning Burnley on the double chance are the play at 4/5.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Everton vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Under Thomas Frank’s watch, Spurs look more organised, compact and risk-averse. In 13 games, they are conceding just 0.8 goals per game. Frank clearly has focused on the structural basics: protecting the centre-backs, limiting transitions, ensuring the midfield-defensive link is sound.
That side of the game is working.
But football is not only about shutting the door – it’s also about creating chances, scoring goals and giving something for the fans to shout about. Spurs aren’t doing that – as shown by their lacklustre attacking showing in Monaco where they once again created low volume and low quality chances. Across their last nine games they are averaging just 9.67 shots per 90.
So, we’ve got a team here in Spurs that don’t concede goals or don’t score many.
Back the under 2.5 line at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bets:
- 1pt double on Cody Gakpo to score & Manchester City to win to nil (9/1 with Sky Bet)
