- Many people agree that the former prime minister Raila Amollo Odinga was one of Kenya’s most influential and enduring political figures for many decades
- Ahead of the 2027 General Election, his absence creates a void within both the opposition and President William Ruto’s government
- TUKO.co.ke has looked at some of the politicians whose reelection bids in 2027 are not guaranteed following Raila’s death
Amos Khaemba, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
Nairobi – The death of former prime minister and veteran opposition leader Raila Amollo Odinga came as a surprise to many Kenyans, including politicians.
Source: Facebook
The death of Raila, one of Kenya’s most influential and enduring political figures, leaves a significant void in Kenya’s politics as the country heads towards the 2027 General Elections.
How will Raila’s death affect Kenya’s politics?
As Raila’s body was finally lowered into the grave on Sunday, October 19, it became unmistakably clear that Kenya was witnessing the closing of an entire chapter in the story of the country’s democratic struggle.
Analysts say his absence creates a void within both the opposition and President Ruto’s government, which, like its predecessors, depended on his influence to maintain stability amid rising public dissatisfaction.
Raila had made five attempts at the presidency, and in each case several politicians used his name to win elections.
Now TUKO.co.ke looks at the politicians who might find it hard to be reelected in 2027 in the absence of the former prime minister.
1. President William Ruto.
President William Ruto is at the top of the list of politicians who will be forced to go back to the drawing board following Raila’s death.
Months before Raila’s death, many analysts had argued that Ruto’s 2027 reelection bid hugely depended on the former prime minister’s support.
Having lost the support of the Mt Kenya region, which hugely voted for him in 2022, Ruto needed Raila’s backing to control all ODM party strongholds in the Nyanza, Nairobi, Western, and Coastal regions.
Some quarters had claimed the president and Raila had entered into a secret deal for the upcoming election.
However, speaking in Bondo, the head of state stated that there was a need for a deal between him and Raila regarding the 2027 election.
“I told Raila Odinga, if you run for president in 2027 or if you support someone else, I want to deal with you,” Ruto said.
But in the absence of Raila, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance leader will struggle to get 100% support from the ODM strongholds, giventhat some party leaders oppose his government.
2. Gladys Wanga
Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga is among notable political figures whose 2027 reelection bid hangs in the balance following Raila’s death.
In the 2022 Homa Bay County gubernatorial election, Wanga of the ODM party won with 244,559 votes, followed closely by Evans Kidero, who received 154,182 votes despite running as an independent candidate.
Wanga’s win was hugely credited to Raila, who gave her a direct ticket after convincing strong candidates like Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and current Homa Bay deputy governor Joseph Oyugi Magwanga to step down.
Now, without Raila’s blessing, some analysts argue that the Homa Bay governor will have a rough time winning a second term.
Analyst Odoyo Owidi argued that the rebellion against Wanga in Homa Bay county will increase given that the political master is no longer there.
“There is a serious rebellion against her in the county of Oma Bay. And she’s been trying to say, Oh, it is Raymond who is bringing in, it is Owidi, it is none of those people. In fact, her story is going to be worsened by the fact that Baba is not there. And without Baba, that rebellion is going to become bigger,” Owidi said.
3. Johnson Sakaja
Nairobi governor Johnson Sakaja is another leading politician whose political future is in a dilemma following the demise of the former prime minister.
Recently, Sakaja leaned heavily on Raila’s influence to steady his administration after facing impeachment threats.
Over 80 Nairobi County Assembly Members had signed an impeachment motion against Sakaja, accusing him of incompetence.
However, the former prime minister summoned ODM MCAs and lobbied them to drop the impeachment motion.
In the absence of Raila, Sakaja’s survival in 2027 is not guaranteed, given his public display showed he was banking on the former prime minister’s support.
4. Edwin Sifuna
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) secretary general Edwin Sifuna’s political future is also unstable after Raila’s death.
Sifuna is on record saying his rising political journey was because of the prime minister’s support.
Before his death, Raila had strongly defended the Nairobi senator despite calls from a section of ODM leaders to have him kicked out for opposing the broad-based government.
After Raila’s death, the youthful senator will now find it hard to oppose the government and still retain his place as the SG of the ODM party.
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5. Abdulswamad Nassir
Mombasa governor Abdulswamad Nassir is among the leaders who also relied on the ODM wave to win the elections in 2022.
In the hotly contested Mombasa gubernatorial elections, Nassir garnered 119,083 votes to defeat Hassan Omar of the UDA party, who got 98,105.
Now that Raila will not be on the ballot in 2027 and with the possibility that ODM might break up, Nassir’s reelection bid will face stiff competition.
For instance, according to Owidi, the Luo community controls over 150,000 votes in Mombasa, and without Raila, they might not vote as a block like in the past.
6. ODM elected leaders in Luo Nyanza, Western Kenya and Nairobi
The largest group of politicians who will be affected by Raila’s demise are the current elected leaders in the Luo Nyanza region and Western Kenya.
In previous elections, many politicians endorsed by the ODM party in Luo Nyanza won elections because of Raila’s name.
In many instances, the Orange party dished out direct tickets to politicians in Nyanza and Western Kenya, especially in Kakamega and Busia counties.
Without Raila, such politicians would find it rough to convince their electorates to vote for them in the 2027 election.
In Nairobi county, a majority of elected leaders won their elections because of Raila’s name and the strength of the ODM party.
“All they need is talk to Baba, and Baba will grant them the Luo vote in masse, and they would be elected,” Owidi said.
Will Raila’s death shape Kenya’s political scene?
Previously, TUKO.co.ke reported that political analyst Philip Mwangale had opened up about how Raila’s death would impact Kenya’s politics.
Mwangale argued that politicians from the Luo Nyanza region will be the most affected ones. He also predicted a significant change in alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
