- ODM leaders demanded the deputy president slot in any deal with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition, deepening political tension
- Analysts said the demand is aimed at keeping ODM relevant after Raila Odinga’s death, as internal divisions threaten to fracture the party
- Ruto faces a dilemma between appeasing ODM to secure Nyanza votes or protecting his Mt Kenya support base loyal to Deputy President Kithure Kindiki
- Some ODM figures back an alliance with Ruto, while others push to rebuild the opposition, exposing a widening rift in the post-Raila era
Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
President William Ruto is at a crossroads in Kenya’s ever-shifting political sands, where the ghost of alliances past looms large while the 2027 elections cast a long shadow.
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Just weeks after the demise of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, the Orange outfit is flexing its muscles, demanding nothing less than the Deputy President slot in any coalition pact with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza ruling coalition.
Why is ODM demanding DP slot in Kenya Kwanza?
This further underscores ODM’s fight for survival amid internal fractures, but one that piles fresh pressure on a president already juggling regional loyalties and a fractured Mt Kenya base.
According to Bungoma-based political commentator and human rights defender Philip Wanyonyi Wekesa, the demand, stated by ODM’s interim leadership under Siaya senator Oburu Oginga, isn’t mere posturing.
Wekesa explained that it’s a calculated bid to anchor the Orange party’s long-term relevance in a post-Raila era.
He further opines that the bargaining power within any coalition heading into 2027 will depend largely on the number of votes each party delivers.
“The demand by ODM for the DP slot in Kenya Kwanza is just a strategy to keep supporters in ODM. The reason is that DP in Kenya comes with a lot in terms of votes, financial and regional balancing. Internal balancing of power towards 2027 will highly depend on the number of votes a political party will bring to on table,” he told TUKO.co.ke.
With Raila’s death leaving a void that no single political figure in the party can fathom to fill, ODM is staring down at fragmentation.
This was already evident in the days leading up to Raila’s death, where young MPs whispered of defections and veteran loyalists clung to Raila’s supposed vision of national unity.
He argued that by eyeing the second-highest office, ODM isn’t just haggling for power; it’s safeguarding its voter fortress, regions that’ve consistently delivered pivotal margins in past polls.
Could Ruto’s alliance with ODM strengthen his 2027 plan?
Yet, as coalition talks heat up for a broader “broad-based government,” ODM’s insistence on the DP docket signals a refusal to settle for crumbs.
Ruto’s dilemma is as tactical as it is cruel since elevating an ODM stalwart to deputy would inject fresh Nyanza and coastal votes into Kenya Kwanza’s 2027 war chest.
This would also potentially mend fences ripped by the 2022 election bitterness and the deadly Gen Z protests of June 2024.
However, it risks igniting a firestorm in Mt Kenya, where Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Ruto’s handpicked second-in-command after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, holds sway.
MPs from Meru and Tharaka-Nithi have already drawn a red line, vowing to defend Kindiki’s place as a non-negotiable slice of the mountain’s political cake.
One lawmaker likened the scenario to “political self-destruction,” warning that sidelining Mt Kenya East could unravel the very alliances Ruto stitched together in the wake of Gachagua’s fall.
It’s a catch-22 moment; concede to ODM, and watch Mt Kenya splinter further, rebuff them, and forfeit a bloc that could tip the scales in 2027.
Raila’s passing unleashed a torrent of uncertainty with factions hardening: one camp, spearheaded by party secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, pushes for a clean break from Ruto’s control to regroup as a vibrant opposition force, priming ODM to launch its own presidential flag-bearer in 2027.
They invoke Raila’s final comments, call for stability, yes, but not subservience, arguing that prolonged government immersion risks diluting the party’s founding ideals.
On the flip side, heavyweights like Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed double down on the alliance, seeing it as Raila’s parting gift.
They’ve secured cabinet plums that keep ODM’s machinery humming, but claims of “auctioning” of the party for personal gain have soured the air.
Can Ruto exploit ODM’s internal divisions?
ODM’s Nyanza stronghold, once an impregnable base, now teeters as the coast scrambles to lock in loyalties amid fears of a post-Raila exodus.
By dangling the DP carrot, Ruto could siphon those votes without fully merging the parties, much like his playbook in Central Kenya.
It’s a divide-and-conquer refined, nurture ODM’s schisms to harvest from both sides, ensuring neither faction bolts entirely.
“ODM is threatened by obvious division after the demise of its founder and party leader, Raila. Ruto is working on a strategy to benefit from both factions of ODM by managing the division because the young turks in ODM who are unable to openly ditch ODM.
ODM demanding for second fiddle is part of the calculation for ODM to survive the turbulence and for Kenya Kwanza to get the support base for 2027. Ruto is using the same strategy in central Kenya,” Wekesa added.
Still, the reality is harsh; the head of state’s political footing was weakened long before Raila was laid to rest.
Ken Babu, a United Opposition youth leader, stated that for many Nyanza voters, political allegiance is not easily swayed by high-level negotiations.
Babu’s argument is founded on the broader disillusionment, born of unfulfilled hustler promises and the scars of Gen Z protest crackdowns.
He believes Ruto’s overtures to ODM, including an attempt to offer of a running mate position, will not translate into votes.
“It doesn’t matter whether Ruto will give the ODM DPs slot, the ground shifted long ago from anything or anybody aligned to him (President Ruto), giving ODM the running mate will not in any way propel people from the Nyanza region to cast in his favour. He lost favour with ground long ago and that’s a sad reality and a thunder that no moves he makes will salvage him from,” Babu told TUKO.co.ke.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
