After two poles and two wins in a perfect Sao Paulo Sprint weekend, Lando Norris put himself in control of the Formula 1 world title race ahead of this week’s Las Vegas Grand Prix.
But how strong a position is the McLaren driver actually now in as he chases his maiden crown?
With just the season-closing triple header of events in Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi to come over the next three weeks before the 2025 season concludes on December 7, we take a look at how the situation looks now in the fight for the sport’s biggest prize.
What’s the latest championship state of play?
Norris now leads team-mate Oscar Piastri by 24 points and Max Verstappen by 49 points at the top of the Drivers’ Championship with three race weekends to go.
There are a maximum of 83 points available to a driver in the three Grands Prix and one Sprint that remain.
A driver collects 25 points for winning a Grand Prix and eight for winning a Saturday Sprint.
How strong is Norris’ position now?
“He is almost one race victory ahead of Piastri and almost two ahead of Verstappen,” underlined Sky Sports F1’s Martin Brundle at the end of the Sao Paulo GP.
“That’s a handy advantage to have at this stage of the season.”
Indeed, the results of Interlagos mean Norris doesn’t necessarily have to win another race this season to become champion for the first time.
While clearly easier to write than achieve, second-place finishes for Norris in all three remaining Grands Prix, plus the Qatar Sprint, would be sufficient for him to take the crown in Abu Dhabi.
Were Norris to keep finishing second to Piastri, the Briton would take the crown by two points.
So, given that position, does he now have one hand on the crown?
“I think so, just because of the form he’s showing,” said Sky Sports F1’s Karun Chandhok.
“It’s one thing about the points gap but the form he’s shown, the way he’s working with his team, his nuclear team, has been so strong, the last four race weekends in particular.”
When is the earliest the title race could be settled?
The earliest the world title can be won is now the Qatar Grand Prix at the end of November, the season’s penultimate round.
The Lusail circuit stages the season’s final Sprint event a week before the 2025 season finale in Abu Dhabi.
There will be no title world coronation in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Even if Norris won and Piastri retired on The Strip Circuit, the Briton’s lead would be 49 points with 58 still to play for heading to Qatar.
For a driver to be champion in Qatar, they would have to be sure of finishing the weekend at least 26 points ahead of second place in the standings. For Norris, that means stretching his current lead of 24 points by just two further points over the course of the next two events.
Furthermore, were results in Vegas to go heavily in his favour, Norris could even have a first chance to clinch the crown in the Qatar Sprint on the Saturday if he leaves ‘Sin City’ with a big enough advantage.
But why the title race is far from over yet
Although a 24-point lead, as Brundle says, is certainly useful with so few rounds left, it still does not represent an absolutely comfortable advantage just yet for Norris, as the Briton himself emphasised after the Interlagos race.
That’s because, with 25 points on offer or a win in a Grand Prix, one single bad weekend for Norris could still turn situation on its head.
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Watch new angles of Oscar Piastri’s 10-second penalty collision with Kimi Antonelli which caused a DNF for Charles Leclerc
Norris already experienced that back at the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August when a late car-related retirement while running second to Piastri meant he lost a full 25 points to his team-mate.
Were such a scenario to happen in Vegas, for instance, Piastri would suddenly be back in the lead heading to Qatar by one point and have his own chance, albeit very outside one, of becoming champion himself there. Verstappen would also likely be right back in the mix too.
So on his measured mindset to the rest of the season despite his points gap, Norris said: “Just imagine you’ve still got 20 races left and you’ve got to keep pushing.
“Just keep my head down, keep focused, keep trying to do what I’m doing. It’s not going to last forever, I’m not going to be able to be on top in every session – that’s the goal but also being realistic and accepting I’ve had two incredible weekends I have driven very well, the car’s been very strong. But it can easily change.”
How unlikely are Verstappen’s chances now?
Ever the realist, Verstappen wrote off his already-outside chances of claiming a fifth consecutive world title when he qualified 16th at Interlagos on the Saturday.
A superlative comeback drive a day later from what became a pit-lane start to third place arguably represented the performance of the season, although the cold reality of the result in title terms was that he still dropped 10 further points adrift in the standings behind race winner Norris.
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Watch the best overtakes from Max Verstappen’s stellar performance at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix which took him all the way from the pitlane to the podium
Verstappen does still remain mathematically in the hunt heading to Las Vegas but, at 49 points back, the permutations are more precarious. The Red Bull driver would officially drop out of the running before Qatar if Norris outscores him by nine points or more in the USA.
Norris, though, is certainly not counting the Dutchman out yet.
“I’m sure Max’s going to be a threat in terms of races, and you never know with the championship. So, it’s pointless trying to guess and come up with these things.
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Max Verstappen praises his Red Bull team on the changes they made ahead of the Sao Paulo GP, as the Dutchman finished the race in P3 after starting in the pitlane
“With how quick he was, he would have won if he started higher up. But that’s racing. Not everyone puts it together, and it’s easy to make mistakes in the world that we live in.
“Max will be a threat because he always is. He’s always there, he’s always fighting, and I’m sure he’ll fight to the end. I look forward to it.”
What are drivers’ theoretical maximum points totals?
Norris currently leads the standings on 390 points and so would get to 473 if he took maximum points to the end of the campaign.
Piastri’s theoretical maximum is 449 points, while Verstappen’s is 424.
Formula 1’s thrilling title race continues with the Las Vegas Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime
