Which Premier League teams are overachieving and underachieving this season? And will Arsenal be caught?
This week’s Between the Lines reveals how the Premier League table should look, according to the Sky Sports xG formula.
We also fire up the Sky Sports supercomputer to see the predicted final standings. Liverpool to finish third? Manchester United fifth? West Ham to be relegated?
Palace ‘should’ be third, Sunderland 18th!
Eleven games in, the season’s main narratives have already emerged.
Arsenal are the team to catch following their strong start to the campaign. Manchester City, rather than faltering champions Liverpool, are seen as their most likely title rivals. At the other end of table, bottom side Wolves are already at risk of getting cut off.
But what’s your team’s true performance level this season?
Our expected table measures underlying performance data rather than results and the standings might surprise you.
How the current Premier League top-half table ‘should’ look, according to xG
Crystal Palace are rated as the third-best performing team in the division behind Arsenal and Manchester City, while struggling Liverpool should be four places better off in fourth.
Newcastle and newly-promoted Leeds are also underperforming significantly. They sit sixth and seventh in the expected table, eight and nine places better off respectively.
Chelsea should be two places worse off, according to the Sky Sports xG formula, which factors expected goals and expected goals against, while Manchester United are also overperforming.
Ruben Amorim’s side face Everton on Monday Night Football on a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League but the expected table has them three places worse off in 10th, suggesting their performances haven’t been as good as recent results suggest.
One team conspicuous by its absence from the top half of the expected table is Sunderland.
How the current Premier League bottom-half table ‘should’ look, according to xG
Regis Le Bris’ side are flying high in fourth having amassed 19 points from their first 11 games following promotion but the expected table has them a whopping 14 places lower, as the third-worst performers in the Premier League so far, based on xG, with an expected points total of eight.
Burnley and Fulham should also be in the relegation zone, with bottom side Wolves placing 17th. Wolves have only taken two points from their first 11 games but their expected points total is nine.
Nottingham Forest, like Wolves, should be in a much better position, according to xG, but the expected table is grim reading for Spurs and Aston Villa, who should be nine and 10 places worse off respectively according to underlying performance data.
Arsenal top Sky Sports predicted table
So, that’s how the Premier League table should look.
But how will it look at the end of the season?
Taking an average from 100,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures, and factoring performance data, fixtures, betting odds and more, the Sky Sports supercomputer predicts leaders Arsenal will emerge as champions, with Manchester City in second.
The predicted final Premier League top-half table
Liverpool are predicted to come third despite sitting eighth as things stand, with Chelsea completing the top four and Manchester United in fifth, a position that could clinch Champions League qualification, depending on this season’s coefficient.
Crystal Palace are also predicted to clinch a European finish in sixth, along with Spurs, who sit a place below the Eagles in seventh. Sunderland are ninth, with Aston Villa only just squeezing into the top half in 10th.
While Newcastle fans are hopeful their team’s form will recover following a poor start, the predicted table has them 14th, which would be their lowest finish since being relegated in 2015/16.
The predicted final Premier League bottom-half table
Relegation could become a reality for West Ham, according to our predicted table. The Hammers won back to back games before the international break but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are tipped to go down in 18th, along with Burnley and Wolves.
That means Leeds, as well as Sunderland, are predicted to survive, with Burnley the only promoted team expected to go straight down.
Nottingham Forest, currently second from bottom having appointed their third manager of the season in Sean Dyche, are expected to fight their way out of trouble and finish 16th.
Read last week’s Between the Lines
Have Liverpool lost their physical edge? Last week we revealed the alarming numbers behind their out-of-possession drop-off.
