Premier League title race: Pros and cons - Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City assessed

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With the Premier League returning this weekend, Sky Sports assesses the pros and cons of title challengers Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City…

LIVERPOOL

Sky Sports’ Richard Morgan:

Con: History is against the Reds

There is a reason Opta’s supercomputer rates Liverpool’s chances of retaining their title at just 7.1 per cent and that is because only four teams in Premier League history having ever managed to claw back a deficit of eight or more points at this stage of the season to win the title [although Man Utd have done it four times and Man City twice].

For that to happen, not only would Arsenal and Man City both have to start dropping points, but Liverpool would also then need to go on the sort of long unbeaten run that currently looks well beyond a side that has already lost five league games this season [only the bottom six have lost more times].

Con: Leaky back line doesn’t instil confidence

Until Arne Slot can fix the glaring defensive problems that have blighted his team all season – the champions have conceded two or more goals in seven of their 11 games this campaign, the joint second-worst record in the top flight – then they can forget about defending their title.

Part of the issue is the Reds’ much-changed back line have been struggling to defend set pieces – and boy do their opponents know this – letting in seven set-play goals so far this campaign, the second-worst record in the division.

Con: Off-colour stars not performing

Slot said after Liverpool’s recent 3-0 loss at Man City that his side cannot spend time thinking about the title race until they have fixed the many issues which have seen them slump to eighth in the table.

However, the Dutchman still does not seem to know what his best XI is, with £116.5m summer signings Florian Wirtz “mauled” at the Etihad, according to Sky Sports’ Gary Neville, while fellow new arrivals Alexander Isak and Milos Kerkez both did not even make the starting XI.

And with many of the stars who were instrumental to Liverpool’s title win last season also so badly out of form – key performers such as Ibrahima Konate, Alexis Mac Allister and Mohamed Salah – it is a stretch to envisage this group of players suddenly now gelling and emerging from their current slump in time to challenge for the title.

Pro: Can the Gunners stand the heat?

There does, though, remain that nagging feeling that the seemingly impregnable Arsenal machine may falter again down the closing stretch, as has happened in recent seasons – Mikel Arteta’s side blew an eight-point advantage in April 2023 to finish five points behind eventual champions Man City, while they also held leads in the past two seasons before fading late on.

And let’s not forget either that we are still only in November, with 27 games left to play, which is a lot of football and plenty of time for injuries and loss of form to kick in.

Pro: Reds have been there & got the T-shirt

Liverpool now have, on paper at least, a favourable run of fixtures – they only face one of the current top 10 before travelling to Arsenal on January 8 – to try and get their stuttering season back on track.

And with an almost fully-fit squad from which to now pick from, including influential goalkeeper Alisson Becker, who due back after the international break, Slot can approach this upcoming schedule with the core of the title-winning side that went unbeaten in the league from September 14 to April 25 last season.

ARSENAL

Sky Sports’ Nick Wright:

Con: Man City lurking

Top of the Premier League with a healthy cushion on second-placed Manchester City? Arsenal have been here before. Fans are still scarred by what happened next.

Pep Guardiola’s side have recovered to overhaul Arsenal in two of the last three title races. The Gunners must be prepared to withstand another second half of the season charge from a side with the one thing Arsenal still lack: title-winning experience.

Pro: Added depth

The biggest reason to believe Arsenal could get over the line this season is the incredible strength in depth now available to manager Mikel Arteta.

Injuries to key players have taken a heavy toll in recent years due to a lack of high-calibre alternatives. But the squad is now far better equipped to absorb blows.

No Bukayo Saka? Here’s Noni Madueke. No Kai Havertz? Try Viktor Gyokeres. No Martin Odegaard? Use Eberechi Eze. No William Saliba? Cristhian Mosquera can step in.

The added depth has already proved invaluable, with Saka, Havertz, Odegaard, Saliba and others having missed games and Arsenal still sitting four points clear at the top.

Pro: The defence

The Premier League’s best defence has got even better. Seven of Arsenal’s 11 opponents so far this season have failed to score against them. Three haven’t even registered a shot on target. It is hard to create chances against them let alone score them.

The Sunderland game was a reminder that they are not impregnable but that game, in which the Black Cats scored twice from chances worth only 0.44 expected goals, looks like an anomaly. Arsenal have only conceded twice from open play all season.

Pro: Set-piece dominance

While other sides, including Liverpool, are scrambling to adjust to the Premier League’s shift towards direct play, Arsenal were well-prepared. They are already into double figures for set-piece goals this season. They excel at defending them too.

Con: Fluidity lacking?

Arsenal’s set-piece threat is a huge asset but it is reasonable to ask whether their current scoring rate is sustainable. And what happens if not?

Arsenal lack the same level of threat in general play, with 12 Premier League sides having scored more open-play goals than their eight so far this season. The Gunners still have work to do to redress the balance and find more cutting edge in open play.

Pro: Right timing?

While Liverpool’s best players are showing signs of age and Manchester City are still in a period of transition, Arsenal look to be in a title-winning sweet spot. The squad is stable, cohesive, and dominated by players in or approaching their peak years.

MAN CITY

Sky Sports’ Laura Hunter:

Pro: Fixture favourability

Opta ranks Man City’s next block of fixtures as the third easiest of any in the division. They face Newcastle, Leeds, Fulham, Sunderland and Crystal Palace in their next five matches. Given they are currently the closest challengers to Arsenal – four points adrift – it is conceivable that the gap will close across that run. Arsenal, meanwhile, land mid-table when it comes to upcoming fixture difficulty. This might be as good a time as any for City to claw back some of the ground they conceded by losing two of their opening three fixtures this season. City play first both this weekend and next.

Pro: Scars are fading

Last weekend Pep Guardiola took charge of his 1000th game in management. If he could have hand-picked the opponent, performance, and result for such a landmark, it’s difficult to imagine it would have been much different to what played out in a 3-0 win over Liverpool. Pep has repeatedly called Liverpool his greatest Premier League nemesis. Some might even say that result eliminated Arne Slot’s side from this year’s race, albeit not conclusively. What it did do was prove City can once again dominate direct rivals. Scars from last season’s sensational collapse appear to be fading.

Pro: Haaland and conspirators

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that having Erling Haaland in your team makes title success infinitely more likely. His 14 Premier League goals are almost twice as many as the next highest scorer (Igor Thiago, eight). His next goal will be his 100th in the competition. But this is not Haaland FC. The form of Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden are major contributors. When all three are on song they have a myriad of ways of hurting you: out wide, central combinations, balls in behind. They can do the lot.

Con: Defensively vulnerable

To caveat Man City’s plentiful quality at the top end, they remain defensively susceptible. Defences win you leagues, so they say, and it’s undoubtedly clear that Arsenal’s solidity is far superior to City’s. Landing the surprise signing of goalkeeper Gigi Donnarumma in the summer has helped but they will have to tighten up further to come out on top across a 38-game campaign. They have forgone five points from winning positions so far this season – an unsustainable ratio for a title competitor.

Con: Time to gel

While City remain recognisable through the spine of their team, there are a lot of new faces in the wider squad. All hold promise, but form is bound to fluctuate given few have familiarity with the intensity of the league. Tijjani Reijnders has slotted in well, while Omar Marmoush has shown he has plenty to offer since arriving last January, but it will be interesting to see how they cope with the Christmas period. Nico Gonzalez has a huge role to play if Rodri’s game time is going to continue to be curbed.

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Premier League title race: Pros and cons – Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City assessed | Football News