Let’s be honest: This weekend is not a great lineup of games. Some of that is due to bloated conferences resulting in less meaningful matchups. Some of it is open weeks. And some of it is the SEC’s late-season, nonconference cupcakes. Of the top 10 teams in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, three are idle this weekend, two face FCS opponents and three more are favored by 30-plus points against FBS opponents.
It’s not an ideal draw for the second-to-last week of the regular season, but — though the Playoff is not the be-all and end-all — there are still several meetings with significant postseason implications. And college football fans know this is exactly the type of weekend to expect the unexpected.
Here are the top 10 games of Week 13 and the CFP picture, starting with a few honorable mentions and counting down.
Honorable mention: Kansas at Iowa State, Washington State at JMU, Baylor at Arizona, Missouri State at Kennesaw State, Arkansas at No. 17 Texas, Duke at North Carolina, ECU at UTSA, TCU at Houston, No. 20 Tennessee at Florida, North Texas at Rice.
(All point spreads are courtesy of BetMGM. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
10. Louisville (7-3) at SMU (7-3), Noon, ESPN2
This game is only here because of how it could impact the mess at the top of the ACC standings. SMU has a path, but it will need to win out against Louisville and Cal and have either Georgia Tech lose this week or Virginia lose next week. If the Mustangs lose either of their next two games, they’re out. There’s also a through-the-looking-glass scenario in which Miami could still reach the ACC title game that requires SMU to lose both remaining games, which we’ll save for next week, if it’s still in play.
Line: SMU -2.5
9. No. 18 Michigan (8-2) at Maryland (4-6), 4 p.m., BTN
This game is only here because of what it could set up for next week. If Michigan (without running back Justice Haynes) can manage a road win over Maryland — losers of six straight and without a win since Sept. 20 — it adds a little extra to the rivalry game against Ohio State on Nov. 29. As if it needs it. Could a 10-2 Michigan squad that knocks off the top-ranked, undefeated Buckeyes in the final week of the regular season sneak into an at-large Playoff spot? It all feels a little far-fetched … but not as much as last year’s Wolverines beating the eventual national champions in Columbus.
Line: Michigan -14
8. Kentucky (5-5) at No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Vandy is lurking as a potential sixth SEC team in the CFP field, a long shot that would make for quite the narrative spectacle, if it comes to pass. For the Commodores, that requires taking care of business against a Kentucky team riding a three-game winning streak. Simply winning out against the Wildcats and Tennessee won’t be enough, but it gives quarterback Diego Pavia and his team a glimmer of hope — and Pavia playing college football is worth tuning in for while we still can. However long that might be.
Line: Vanderbilt -9.5
7. Kansas State (5-5) at No. 12 Utah (8-2), 4 p.m., ESPN2
On the heels of three straight blowout victories (with freshman backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin topping 150 yards rushing in two of them), the Utes are living that Playoff bubble life. They’re still alive in the Big 12 title race, but will need BYU and Texas Tech to stumble. They’re currently on the outside of the 12-team field as an at-large candidate as well, and would be boxed out by the lower-ranked auto-qualifiers. The Athletic’s projection gives Utah a 30-percent probability to make the CFP, but it will have to win out and get some help. However, a loss could also have significant ripple effects — including on Miami.
Line: Utah -17.5
Can quarterback Byrd Ficklin help keep the Utes’ Playoff hopes alive? (Chris Jones / USA Today via Imagn Images)
6. No. 13 Miami (8-2) at Virginia Tech (3-7), Noon, ESPN
The most contentious debate of the CFP rankings has been the disparity between Notre Dame and Miami. The two-loss Irish (who host reeling Syracuse) are at No. 9 in the rankings, four spots ahead of the two-loss Hurricanes, which beat Notre Dame in the season-opener in South Beach. Hunter Yurachek, chair of the CFP selection committee, said the two teams haven’t been close enough in the committee’s rankings to directly compare and consider the head-to-head result, an argument we don’t have the space to properly parse here. But if both Miami and Notre Dame win as expected this weekend, and either Utah, BYU or Alabama loses (the Tide play Eastern Illinois), it could force the committee to finally reckon with a debate it has punted on thus far.
Line: Miami -17.5
5. No. 24 Tulane (8-2) at Temple (5-5), 3:45 p.m., ESPNU
Tulane moves into pole position for that unofficial Group of 5 Playoff spot as the only G5 team in the CFP Top 25 rankings. Still, it’s a cluster at the top of the American, and the Green Wave still need to win the conference championship to qualify for one of the five automatic bids. Navy, Tulane, North Texas and ECU each have one league loss and none of them face each other over the next two weeks, meaning the title-game participants could come down to the highest-ranked teams according to the CFP and/or computer metrics. Tulane winning out should secure it a place in the American championship, but Temple is no pushover, with a plus-11 turnover margin that ranks top 10 in FBS. The rest of the G5 needs Tulane to slip up.
Line: Tulane -8.5
4. No. 22 Missouri (7-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2), Noon, ABC
Oklahoma was the big winner last week in terms of the Playoff picture, with the road win over Alabama vaulting the Sooners into at-large range. They did it with defense, as they have for much of the season, almost getting doubled-up in yards (406 to 212) but forcing three turnovers, including a pick six. Oklahoma still needs to knock off Missouri and LSU to make the CFP, which will require slowing down Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy after his 300-yard performance against Mississippi State. (Though Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula is questionable with an ankle injury.) The Sooners enter the weekend with a 52-percent chance to make the Playoff, according to The Athletic’s projections, but it jumps to 75 percent with a victory on Saturday.
Line: Oklahoma -7.5
3. Pittsburgh (7-3) at No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1), 7 p.m., ESPN
This one will either bring a sense of order to the ACC or sprinkle more chaos into the mix. Georgia Tech, playing its final conference game of the season, locks up a spot in the ACC championship with a win, as well as the school’s first 10-win season since 2014. Pitt needs a win to stay in contention and could lend some hope to a few others with a victory. It will have to slow down Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King and the top offense in college football (7.5 yards per play), though Georgia Tech’s close call against Boston College last week — and a defense in the bottom 25 of the FBS — should provide Pitt some encouragement.
Line: Georgia Tech -2.5
2. No. 11 BYU (9-1) at Cincinnati (7-3), 8 p.m., Fox
Cincinnati’s home loss to Arizona last week took some air out of this one, which could have been a primetime showdown between two teams with one conference loss and control of their own destiny in the Big 12 title race. Instead, Cincinnati will attempt to play spoiler with a home win over BYU that would keep its conference chances alive. It’ll be tough against a team that runs for nearly 200 yards per game and holds opposing offenses to just 31 percent on third-down conversions. A win for the Cougars puts a title rematch against Texas Tech into clearer view and may bring attention to BYU’s (underrated?) at-large credentials.
Line: BYU -2.5
1. No. 15 USC (8-2) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1), 3:30 p.m., CBS
This one is easily the biggest game of the weekend. Oregon is safely in the field at the moment despite an increasingly flimsy resume. Its best wins — at six-loss Penn State and four-loss Iowa — are no longer as impressive as they seemed in the moment. But the Ducks do have a top-three offense and defense in terms of yards per play and can quiet the doubters with a win against a resilient USC team that boasts the second-rated offense in the FBS. The same opportunity is there for the Trojans, who desperately need this one to have a shot at an at-large bid. A win boosts Oregon to a 93 percent Playoff probability in The Athletic’s projections; an upset would bump USC from 20 percent up to 79 percent. Long live the Pac-12.
Line: Oregon -9.5
