- Mbeere North by-election has drawn national attention with two top leaders closely monitoring the outcome
- Political commentator and pilot Iain Njiraini told TUKO.co.ke that the contest goes beyond local issues and signals a deeper power realignment in Mt. Kenya
- He explained how a Newton Karish victory would shift support around Rigathi Gachagua, while a government-aligned win may raise new questions
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TUKO.co.ke journalist Harry Ivan Mboto has over three years of experience reporting on politics and current affairs in Kenya
The political heat in Mbeere North has risen in the final stretch of the scheduled November 27 by-election.
Source: UGC
Local alliances are shifting and national figures turning the constituency into a testing ground for influence.
Political commentator Iain Njiraini told TUKO.co.ke that the stakes around this vote go far beyond choosing a new member of Parliament.
According to him, the contest has slowly turned into a quiet struggle for control in Mt. Kenya politics.
Njiraini, who doubles as a commercial pilot, said the intense focus by senior leaders shows how much both sides want to prove they can still sway opinion in a region that has become unpredictable.
What is at stake in the Mbeere North by-election?
He explained that former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua and the current deputy president Kithure Kindiki have taken a keen interest because the result will shape how the larger Mt Kenya bloc reorganises itself ahead of future elections.
“This race is not just about government versus opposition, UDA wing versus opposition wing or Newton Karish versus Leonard Wamuthende. It is about Mt Kenya kingpinship. Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua against the sitting deputy president Kithure Kindiki,” Njiraini said.
He noted that while main candidates, DP party’s Karish and UDA’s Wamuthende have been moving across the constituency selling their ideas, their message is often overshadowed by the rivalry playing out between Gachagua and Kindiki.
According to Njiraini, the outcome could settle questions that many local leaders have avoided openly.
He said several grassroots figures have been watching the race before choosing which political centre they will rally around.
“That is why on the campaign trail, they (Kindiki and Gachagua) have been more vocal than the candidates themselves. The whole region is watching to see who carries more influence,” Njiraini told TUKO.co.ke.
What a Newton Karish win would mean for Gachagua
The commentator believes the upcoming result will shape the next wave of political conversations in Mt. Kenya.
A victory for Karish, associated with Gachagua’s side of the bloc, may boost the former deputy president’s influence at a time when internal reorganisation is quietly taking place.
On the other hand, a win for Wamuthende could give Kindiki more room to claim that the region is shifting.
Gachagua has wider support for now, though some people remain split at fifty-fifty. They want to see the result first. If Karish wins, they will back Gachagua fully. If UDA or the government side wins, these people will still feel unsure. This is a battle for kingpinship,” he added.
Mbeere North residents are counting just hours before the highly anticipated Thursday poll.
Source: UGC
Did Gachagua warn Kindiki could be Mbeere North’s casualty?
TUKO.co.ke previously reported that Gachagua stirred debate after saying the Mbeere North by election could expose Kindiki to political trouble.
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He hinted that the outcome might shake the president’s inner circle and place Kindiki in a vulnerable spot.
Gachagua claimed President William Ruto may use the mini poll as a reason to overhaul his Cabinet in 2026, which could bring in new faces and even trigger a shift in the deputy president position.
He argued that this possibility grows stronger with ODM leaders openly declaring interest in the seat ahead of the next polls.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
