Editor’s note: In this article, Meshack Ouya, a political analyst based in Nairobi, shares his views on how Kasipul by-elections are shaping the future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. He highlights the deeper problems that ODM has failed to confront following the death of Raila Odinga
The Kasipul by-election was never meant to attract national attention. Yet it has evolved into the clearest indication that ODM’s internal machinery is wobbling and fast following the death of its leader, Raila Odinga.
Source: Facebook
What should have been a straightforward contest has turned into a fierce political standoff that lays bare the party’s growing fragility.
Glady Wanga vs Oyugi Magwanga
The clash between Governor Gladys Wanga and her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, is not just another case of local leaders disagreeing.
It reflects a much deeper problem that ODM has failed to confront: its nomination processes and the resentment they continue to breed.
For years, powerful party figures have influenced who gets the ticket, often leaving those pushed aside nursing silent grievances. Kasipul has now brought those grievances into full public view.
Magwanga’s decision to openly back an independent candidate is the kind of defiance that once seemed unthinkable in an ODM stronghold.
But it speaks to a shifting political mood. Loyalty to the party is no longer automatic.
Leaders now feel emboldened to challenge decisions made at the top, and voters are increasingly willing to follow personalities rather than party colours.
Wanga, on her part, has dug in, campaigning aggressively for the ODM candidate.
Her insistence on asserting control in her home county has turned this by-election into a battle for political supremacy, a test of who actually commands the Homa Bay ground.
Both sides are fighting hard, but in the process, the party they represent is being torn down the middle.
Kasipul has become a mirror reflecting ODM’s current state. It is divided, noisy, and unable to enforce discipline among its own senior officials.
Are Kasipul residents shunning the ODM party?
The by-election has also exposed a shift in voter behaviour. People on the ground appear less willing to unquestioningly back ODM simply because of tradition.
The willingness to explore alternatives, even independents, shows a region quietly renegotiating its political loyalties.
If the party’s top leadership doesn’t urgently address these internal fractures, Kasipul may become a preview of what lies ahead in other strongholds.
The danger for ODM isn’t losing a single parliamentary seat. It’s losing the perception that it is still the uncontested political force in its heartland.
What Kasipul has revealed is that ODM’s biggest threat is no longer external competition.
It is internal decay. Unless the party confronts its own weaknesses, this by-election will be remembered not for who won, but for what it exposed.
Should Winnie be given leadership position in ODM party
Makadara Member of Parliament George Aladwa called for the involvement of Winnie Odinga in the daily affairs of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party.
On Sunday, November 23, Aladwa called on ODM party leader and Siaya senator Oburu Oginga to reach out to Winnie, the daughter of the late former prime minister Raila Odinga.
The East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP recently caused a storm in the party after she claimed that certain ODM party officials were planning to sell the party ahead of the 2027 General Election.
To tame the growing tension in the party, Aladwa wants ODM to create a position for Winnie so that she can be involved in the day-to-day running of the movement.
According to the Makadara lawmaker, the fourth position of the deputy party leader should be created and reserved for Raila’s daughter.
He argued that the EALA lawmaker will bring new ideas to the party and, at the same time, resolve current leadership wrangles.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
