Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Liverpool vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm
With Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley both unavailable, Arne Slot could be forced into a workaround at right-back and Wataru Endo is the obvious emergency option after filling in there in midweek. That positional tweak completely changes how his card price should be viewed.
Endo is aggressive, front-footed and far more comfortable stepping into duels than jockeying wide in space. Drop him into a full-back role and you’re asking him to defend large areas against pace and direct running. And Newcastle are one of the worst opponents you can face when learning on the job out wide.
If Endo does start at right-back, he’ll be dealing with Anthony Gordon, potentially supported by Lewis Hall, which is a nightmare match-up profile. Gordon drives straight at defenders and invites contact. The numbers underline that threat as six different opponents have been carded against Gordon in the Premier League this season. Endo’s price of 5/2 with Sky Bet to be carded, if he starts as full-back, is a real runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wataru Endo to be carded (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
This is one of those prices that makes you stop, wash your face with cold water and check you’re reading it correctly.
Aston Villa to win at 21/20 with Sky Bet feels very generous considering what this team have been telling us for months.
Since going winless in their opening five Premier League games, Villa have been nothing short of elite. They’ve taken 43 points from 18 matches, title-challenger output no doubt and no side in the division have collected more points over that period. That’s not a short hot streak either. It’s a sample of results to respect. It’s sustained excellence.
Brentford, meanwhile, remain a side you want to oppose on their travels. Only bottom club Wolves have suffered more away defeats in the Premier League this season (8). Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (21/20 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
There is no better attacker of a set-piece in world football than Harry Maguire. And in a Premier League season where dead-ball situations are being mined relentlessly for goals, Maguire is going to get his feed soon enough.
Harry Maguire is 7/1 to score vs Fulham
Back in the Manchester United starting XI, Maguire is playing with an authority that has shone brightly in the last two performances. That confidence can translate to when he ventures forward. Maguire’s old-school dominance remains a potent betting weapon and the 7/1 with Sky Bet for him to score is worth jumping on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s a strong whiff of needle about this one. There’s lingering animosity in the air after the summer legal battles which ended in Forest replacing Palace in the Europa League and when you layer in the relegation context, emotions are likely to be running hot. That’s usually when the card markets come alive.
One match-up in particular looks primed to deliver.
Neco Williams is expected to lock horns with Ismaila Sarr, and that’s a tough afternoon for any full-back. Sarr is relentless in one-vs-one situations, drives straight at defenders and forces decisions at pace. The data is damning from a defensive perspective as Sarr has drawn 21 cards from opponents since the start of last season, with only Bruno Guimaraes responsible for more in the Premier League.
Williams looks a bet material at 100/30 with Sky Bet to be carded in an edgy game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Neco Williams to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s no escaping the strange relationship between these two. Spurs have won seven of the last 12 meetings and Pep Guardiola has lost more Premier League games against Tottenham (8) than any other opponent. On paper, that history screams Tottenham.
And when you see Spurs at 100/30 with Sky Bet, the temptation is obvious. But Spurs at home remain impossible to trust.
Instead of fighting the uncertainty, the smarter route is to isolate a player who can still profit from Spurs doing some things right and that’s where Dominic Solanke to score at 11/4 with Sky Bet comes to the party.
He’s become something of a forgotten man, but Solanke is built to score in the Premier League. Goals in back-to-back games is a reminder of his talents.
There’s also a bigger-picture motivation edge at play. With England’s forward depth in focus, Solanke knows he’s fighting to be a potential Harry Kane understudy this summer for England at the World Cup.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Dominic Solanke is 11/4 to score vs Man City
Sunderland vs Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Sunderland remain the only Premier League team unbeaten at home this season. That is wild.
But trends do snap and, in betting, timing when to step in to profit from such a run ending is a key weapon to use when trying to profit in this game. It’s 19/5 with Sky Bet to end here – a price on a Burnley win that is too big to pass up.
The absence of Granit Xhaka is pivotal. We saw exactly how fragile Sunderland can be without their midfield reference point in their worst performance of the season away at West Ham. Without Xhaka’s control, leadership and ability to dictate tempo, Sunderland lost structure, lost composure and were far too easy to play through.
Burnley need wins now. So their approach will be positive and the market is dangling a very juicy carrot towards us regarding their win prospects.
