- There has been a huge debate about who should fly the opposition’s flag between Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i
- Political analyst Herman Manyora shared insights on a formidable combination that can easily win the 2027 presidential race
- In an exclusive interview with TUKO.co.ke, Manyora said with the right combination, the opposition has a chance of getting over 60% of the votes
The 2027 presidential election has already been billed as a two-horse race between President William Ruto and the opposition team led by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua.
Source: Facebook
While Ruto is almost assured of a spot on the presidential ballot, the opposition has yet to settle on its candidate.
Who will be the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2027?
Several names have been suggested for the opposition ticket, from former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka, former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, to Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya.
Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua has also declared interest in the top seat, the same as Gachagua, albeit being constitutionally locked out following his impeachment.
As of now, the opposition has not yet settled on its presidential candidate.
“The formula to get a single candidate to face Ruto is on course. For those in doubt, the ongoing byelections are a dress rehearsal of the formula and mechanism that will get him out of office,” Gachagua said on November 3.
“We have clear instructions from the people of Kenya to agree on one candidate to face Ruto and end his rule. We want to assure the people that we are determined to abide by their wishes and get a single candidate. It will happen, and that will be the president of the nation,” he added.
However, political reporter Stephen Letoo sparked a debate after posting a possible lineup that had Kalonzo as the presidential candidate and Natembeya as the running mate.
Can Kalonzo-Natembeya ticket beat Ruto in 2027?
According to political analyst Herman Manyora, a combination of Kalonzo and Natembeya for the presidential race can easily win against President Ruto.
“Unless something changes, a lineup where Kalonzo is at the top of the ticket deputised by someone like Natembeya with Gachagua in the corner, that one is a very serious and formidable lineup,” Manyora told TUKO.co.ke in an exclusive interview on Wednesday, November 5.
“If elections were called today, the Kalonzo-Natembeya-Gachagua axis would get over 60% of the votes,” he added.
Kalonzo commands a strong support base from the Ukambani region, while Natembeya has been popularising his Tawe Movement in the western region.
Source: Facebook
Why Kalonzo has an edge over Matiang’i in race to fly the opposition’s flag
While Kalonzo is the senior-most politician within the opposition, former CS Matiang’i has also emerged as a strong contender for the opposition’s ticket.
He was recently endorsed by former president Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee party to be its presidential candidate.
Manyora, however, believes it will need a lot of recalibration for the opposition should they settle on Matiang’i.
“If Gachagua is pushing Kalonzo, then he has a head start, although both (Kalonzo and Matiang’i) are well received in the mountain, only that Gachagua seems to be favouring Kalonzo,” noted the renowned political analyst.
“Unless there is a serious change, Kalonzo seems to have taken the ticket already because the most formidable person in the opposition is Gachagua, who doesn’t have kind words for Matiang’i,” he added.
How can the opposition lock Luhya votes out of Ruto’s reach?
During the 2022 General Election, Luhya votes arguably tilted the scale in favour of Ruto, who beat the late Raila Odinga with a margin of about 200,000 votes.
Going into another election, Mayora argues that the only way the opposition can prevent the president from getting a share of Luhya votes is by having a politician from the region as their running mate.
This technically means a Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket is unlikely.
“The Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket can work, but it exposes the Luhya votes. If you leave the Luhya votes exposed, it can cause you problems. You get a running mate from the Western region, and that way you lock out Ruto,” he said.
Source: Facebook
Will the upcoming by-elections reflect what is to come in 2027?
Several by-elections are set to be held on November 27, offering both the opposition and the government an opportunity to test their popularity.
One of the races being keenly watched is the Malava parliamentary seat.
United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate David Ndakwa and Democratic Action Party of Kenya’s Seth Panyako are the front-runners.
Ndakwa is also being supported by ODM, while Panyako is the opposition’s candidate after the Democracy for Citizen Party (DCP) candidate withdrew from the race.
“If Ndakwa loses in Malava, it would seem to confirm that UDA and President Ruto don’t have the support they thought they had. It would also mean that the likes of CS Wyclife Oparanya, Musalia Mudavadi, and Speaker Moses Wetang’ula won’t help the government in 2027,” Manyora noted.
Source: Facebook
Is Natembeya the Luhya community’s de facto leader?
Previously, TUKO.co.ke detailed how Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya was consolidating his political support base ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Natembeya has been popularising his Tawe Movement across Western Kenya counties.
Political analysts in the county described him as the next big thing in Kenyan politics.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
