- On Wednesday, November 19, Mizani Africa released its survey regarding the upcoming Mbeere North by-election
- According to the survey result Leonard Wa Muthende and Newton Karish are the frontrunners for the seat
- The opinion poll also showed which party, between United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), is more popular in Mbeere North
Amos Khaemba, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
Embu – Political analysts have argued that the Mbeere North by-election is a key political test for major parties in the county and Mount Kenya.
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Who is likely to win in Mbeere North?
A Mizani Africa survey has shown that the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Leonard Wa Muthende will emerge victorious.
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According to the poll, conducted between November 17 and 19 among 800 respondents, Wa Muthende commands 44.6% of voter support, giving him a slight lead over his rivals.
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The Democratic Party of Kenya (DP) candidate, Newton Karish, emerged second with 42.4%, in a race that Mizani Africa said is too close to call.
“A race too close to call. Fresh preference numbers from Mbeere North signal an incredibly tight by-election battle, with Leonard Wa Muthende at 44.6% and Newton Karish at 42.4%. These figures sit well within the survey’s ±3% margin of error, confirming beyond doubt that the race is too close to call. Neither side holds a statistically clear lead, and the small difference between them could easily be reversed by voter turnout patterns, ward-level shifts, or changes in campaign tempo,” Mizani Africa said.
According to survey results, the Mbeere North by-election is a two-horse race, given both leading candidates enjoy a nearly similar support base.
The Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) candidate, Duncun Mbui, who emerged third has a popularity rating of 5.7%, with 7.3% of the respondents being undecided on who they will vote for.
“This poll positions the by-election as a pure two-horse race, with both candidates enjoying nearly equivalent support bases and competitive ground structures. Duncun Mbui, polling at 5.7%, remains far behind the leading duo, leaving the real contest squarely between Leonard and Newton. Meanwhile, the 7.3% undecided voters form a decisive cohort whose final choices will determine the eventual victor,” the survey showed.
Which political party is popular in Mbeere North?
In terms of party popularity, President William Ruto’s UDA remains popular with a 38.9% rating, followed closely by Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), which has a 33.1% rating.
“The latest Mizani Africa party preference poll for Mbeere North shows UDA leading with 38.9%, maintaining its position as the most preferred party in the constituency. DCP follows closely at 33.1%, marking a strong recovery from earlier months. DP stands at 14.1%, reflecting steady but moderate support, while CCK registers 3.7%, indicating limited traction,” the survey firm said.
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Mizani Africa said the survey results indicate growing consolidation around the major parties as voter preferences become more defined.
What did Kithure Kindiki say about Mbeere North by-election?
In related news, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki exuded confidence that UDA would clinch the seat with a landslide, promising the opposition an “epic battle” in the upcoming by-elections.
Kindiki accused the United Opposition of selling fear to Mbeere North residents instead of highlighting the agenda of their candidate.
According to Kindiki, Gachagua was busy abusing elected leaders in Embu county at the expense of selling Karish’s candidature.
Proofreading by Asher Omondi, copy editor at TUKO.co.ke.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
