While Arsenal have already booked their place in the last 16 of the Champions League, the remaining five Premier League clubs still have work to do in the final round of league-phase fixtures.
So, in order of current league-phase table position, what do Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester City need to join the Gunners in the knockouts, and what are the permutations?
First, a reminder that the top eight league-phase finishers go straight through to the last 16, while those between ninth to 16th are seeded in the knockout-phase play-offs, and those between 17th and 24th are unseeded in the knockout-phase play-offs. The remaining teams are eliminated entirely from the competition.
Remarkably, heading into the final week, just two teams – Arsenal and Bayern – are certain of finishing in the top eight. And at the bottom, only four teams – Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat – have been knocked out. The remaining 32 all have something to play for.
Ahead of the final round of fixtures, taking place at 8pm Wednesday January 28, we explain the status of each Premier League side, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea all currently in the top eight and Manchester City just outside on goal difference.
Arsenal (1st, 21 points) – Final group game at home to Kairat Almaty
Maintaining their 100 per cent league-phase record by beating Inter Milan, Arsenal guaranteed to finish in the top two.
And if you’re not aware, that matters because a new rule designed for this season means a higher finish gives you an easier Champions League knockout route in terms of home advantage.
Teams who finish in the top four positions in the Champions League table will be given home second legs for the last 16 and quarter-final rounds. And the top two teams in the Champions League table will also be given second-leg home advantages in the semi-final stage.
Mikel Arteta’s side only need a draw from their final league-phase game, at home to Kairat Almaty, the side ranked bottom of the league-phase table, to secure top spot ahead of Bayern Munich, who are three points behind them on 18 points and need a point to guarantee second place.
Arsenal will only finish second if they lose against Kairat Almaty and Bayern Munich win their final game, away to PSV Eindhoven, while matching or bettering Arsenal’s goal difference, which stands at +18 to Bayern’s +13 going into the final round.
After points and goal difference, league-phase table positions are separated by total league-phase goals scored, then away goals scored, then number of wins, then number of away wins.
But beyond bragging rights, there is scant reward for finishing first or second as both the top two will be given the same home-second leg advantage in the knockout stages.
Liverpool (4th, 15 points) – Final group game at home to Qarabag
Victory in Marseille has left Liverpool in a very strong position not merely to secure a top-eight finish but very possibly a top-four slot too.
But first things first: with the table so congested, and just three points separating third placed-Real Madrid from Juventus in 15th, Liverpool must beat Qarabag – who themselves still have an outside shot of reaching the top eight – to be sure of avoiding the play-offs. A draw could be enough, but Wednesday night will begin with nine teams below Liverpool in the table but capable of also finishing on 16 or more points.
So a must-win against Qarabag it is. And if Liverpool do win, a top-four finish, which will see Anfield host the second leg of their last-16 tie and any quarter final tie, is theirs.
Tottenham (5th, 14 points) – Final group game away to Frankfurt
Having taken 14 points from their seven games and sitting fifth, Spurs are already guaranteed a top-16 finish, meaning the worst-case scenario is a seeded spot in the play-off round.
A win in their final game, away to aleady-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt, would guarantee a top-eight finish and could propel Spurs as high as third, which would ensure home second legs in the round of 16 and quarter-finals, as per the new rule mentioned above.
But if they draw in Frankfurt, eight different teams – including PSG – could move above Spurs on points with a win.
And if they lose to Frankfurt, the number of different teams able to overtake them with 15 or 16 points rises to 10 – with an 11th, Borussia Dortmund, also capable of bettering Tottenham in the table with a win and a four-goal swing of goal difference.
Newcastle (7th, 13 points) – Final group game away to PSG
The bad news for Newcastle is that they are away to holders and sixth-placed Paris-Saint Germain in their final group game.
The good news is that the 3-0 win over PSV means they will start next Wedneday night in seventh and with the reassurance they have already secured a top-half finish among the play-off teams were they to slip out of the top eight – which means they will be away from home in the first leg of any play-off tie.
And we shouldn’t overlook that victory over PSG would even give Newcastle a top-four finish were two of Real Madrid, Liverpool and Tottenham to also slip up.
The middleground, however, is that Newcastle will also travel to Paris with little or no margin for error. With eight teams currently outside of the top eight but within two points of Newcastle, it’s hard to see anything but a win securing an automatic progress to the last 16. Game of the night next week? No doubts.
Chelsea (8th, 13 points) – Final group game away to Napoli
It is another illustration of just how congested the table is, that Moises Caicedo late winner against Pafos saw Chelsea move seven places up the table.
But what goes up can also go down, and the fear for Chelsea ahead of the final round of games, when they will travel to Naples, is that, even if Galatasary and Qarabag can be ruled out as potential usurpers due to goal difference, eight different teams can leap ahead of them if they lose to Napoli.
Nor is a draw likely to be enough to keep Chelsea in the top eight: were Chelsea to take a point in Naples, they would finish ninth or lower if only one of Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta or Inter were to win and either Dortmund or Juventus won by two or more goals.
Man City (11th, 13 points) – Final group game at home to Galatasaray
Manchester City’s shock defeat to Bodo/Glimt has left them outside the top eight and needing results to go their way next Wednesday if they are to avoid the play-offs.
City, like Chelsea and Newcastle, are one of eight teams currently on 13 points, but unlike Chelsea, Newcastle and also Atalanta and Sporting, will play at home next week.
That at least is in their favour. Unfortunately for City, recent form is not, and goal difference could prove problematic even if they beat Galatasaray.
But given that one of Tottenham and PSG will drop points, and Chelsea and Newcastle have difficult assignments, a win should be enough for City to clamber into the top eight.
Which teams have already qualified for the last 16?
- Arsenal – have also secured a top-two finish
- Bayern Munich
When are the 2025/26 Champions League knockout stages?
Play-off draw: January 30, 2026
Knockout play-offs: February 17-18 and 24-25, 2026
Round of 16: March 10-11 and 17-18, 2026
Quarter-finals: April 7-8 and 14-15, 2026
Semi-finals: April 28-29 and May 5-6, 2026
Final: Saturday, May 30, 2026
Where is the Champions League final being held in 2026?
The 2025/26 Champions League final will take place in Budapest at the Puskas Arena on Saturday May 30.
