The Premier League’s relegation battle is heating up.
With basement boys Wolves nailed on for the drop, there are two relegation spots to be decided.
Second-bottom Burnley are eight points from safety, but a win and a draw from their last two games have given them faint hope of survival.
West Ham occupy the final relegation spot in 18th and sit two points from safety with 11 games left.
But an upturn in results and performances has given Nuno Espirito Santo’s side hope of reeling in Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds.
With five teams fighting to avoid the final two relegation places, Sky Sports keeps track on the battle for survival…
The run-in
Aside from Wolves, the rest of the bottom six all have 11 games left.
The fixture list is in Spurs and Leeds’ favour based on the opposition’s league position, with Forest, West Ham and Burnley all having more difficult games left to play.
When are the six-pointers?
There are some crucial clashes between relegation rivals in the last three months of the season, with Leeds facing four of the bottom six in their final six fixtures, including a final-day trip to West Ham.
Here are the six-pointers which could be key in deciding the relegation battle:
- March 22: Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, live on Sky Sports
- April 11: West Ham vs Wolves
- April 18: Leeds vs Wolves & Forest vs Burnley
- April 25: Wolves vs Tottenham
- May 2: Leeds vs Burnley
- May 9: Tottenham vs Leeds
- May 24: Burnley vs Wolves & West Ham vs Leeds
The supercomputer’s relegation predictions…
Last weekend’s results saw West Ham claim a point in a goalless home draw against Bournemouth to close the gap to 17th-placed Forest to two points after their last-gasp home loss to Liverpool.
But the Opta supercomputer still has the Hammers (70.8 per cent) as favourites to be relegated alongside Burnley (97.8 per cent) and Wolves (100 per cent).
Opta have given Forest a 23.2 per cent chance of going down, with Spurs at just 4.8 per cent and Leeds at only 2.2 per cent.
How many points could be needed?
In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation.
Last season, 26 points would have been enough to stay up as an exceptionally poor bottom three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made an immediate return to the Championship.
Spurs took advantage of the trio’s weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League as they finished a dismal 17th on 38 points – 13 points above 18th-placed Leicester.
But that luxury for Tottenham is not there this season as they face the very real possibility of relegation to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1977.
With the teams involved in the relegation fight significantly stronger than last season, the 40-point mark could well be being eyed up.
Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team Premier League era – Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) – the latter holding the record for the team relegated with the most points with 42.
15th: Leeds
Leeds have lost just one of their last six league games as they sit 15th and six points off the bottom three.
But Daniel Farke’s side have won just once on the road in the league – a victory at Wolves in September – adding extra importance to their games at Elland Road, where they have lost just three times this season (W6 D4).
16th: Tottenham
“It would be the shock of the century. It would be absolutely mind-blowing to think that they could disappear out of this league, but I don’t think they will.”
Even if Gary Neville is confident the Premier League ever-presents will not be relegated, their form says otherwise, with Spurs sitting 16th and four points from the drop.
Igor Tudor’s side are on a nine-game winless league run, are yet to win in 2026 and are battling a crippling absentee crisis.
17th: Nottingham Forest
Two points behind Spurs are 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, who are on a four-game winless run in the league.
But an encouraging performance in defeat to Liverpool under new boss Vitor Pereira has given Forest hope of improving under the Portuguese.
18th: West Ham
West Ham looked doomed at the start of the year before a huge win at rivals Tottenham kickstarted their survival bid.
The Hammers have lost only once since that victory in north London, giving them hope of avoiding relegation for the first time since 2011.
19th: Burnley
Burnley look likely for an immediate return to the Championship.
Scott Parker’s side are eight points from safety and have only won one of their last 18 league games.
20th: Wolves
A 19-game winless start to the Premier League season essentially sealed Wolves’ fate.
The Old Gold are 17 points from safety and need a miracle to stay in the top flight for a ninth season.
