- Kenya’s March 2026 weather forecast predicts above-average rainfall in several regions
- The weatherman said dry spells are anticipated in the second half of March due to Madden–Julian Oscillation phases
- According to Kenya Met, temperatures are expected to be warmer than average in coastal and northeastern areas
Amos Khaemba, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over four years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
Nairobi – The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its monthly weather forecast covering the month of March 2026.
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The weather outlook indicates that the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the South Coast, Northwestern and some parts of the Southeastern Lowlands and Northeastern Kenya are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall over the next 31 days.
What will be the weather conditions for March?
According to the notice released on Sunday, March 1, much of the North Coast and North-eastern Kenya is likely to receive near-average rainfall.
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“Rainfall is likely to be enhanced over much of the country during the first half of March. Dry spells are expected to occur during the second half of the month when the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to be in unfavourable phases,” Kenya Met said.
KMD said the mean temperatures are predicted to be warmer than average over the Coast, the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya. The rest of the country is likely to experience nearaverage temperatures.
Detailed Regional Rainfall Outlook for March 2026
1 The Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift Valley
The counties in this region are Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West-Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori and Narok.
In these counties, Kenya Met predicted that rainfall is likely to be near-average to above-average for the next month, with occasional heavy rainfall events likely to occur in several parts of the region during the first half of the month.
2. North-western Kenya
In Turkana and Samburu counties, rainfall is likely to be near-average to above-average. Intermittent rainfall, that may occasionally be heavy, is expected during the first half of the month, with onsets expected in the 1st to 2nd weeks of April.
3. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley
In Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi counties, rainfall is likely to be near-average to above-average.
Kenya Met predicted that occasional heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in several parts of the region during the first half of the month.
4. Northeastern Kenya
The weatherman projected that Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties will experience near-average rainfall.
The western parts of Marsabit and Isiolo Counties are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Intermittent rainfall, which may occasionally be heavy, is expected during the first half of the month. Rainfall onsets are expected in the 1 st to 2nd weeks of April.
5. The South-eastern lowlands
KMD predicted that Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita-Taveta Counties, as well as the inland parts of Tana River county will receive near-average to above-average rainfall over much of the region, except the eastern parts of Tana River county where near-average rainfall is expected.
Occasional heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in a few areas during the first half of the month.
6. The Coast
Rainfall is likely to be near-average in Lamu County, the Tana Delta and the eastern parts of Kilifi County. Mombasa and Kwale Counties, as well as the western parts of Kilifi County, are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Intermittent rainfall, which may occasionally be heavy, is expected during the first half of the month.
The weatherman predicted that rainfall onsets for the North Coast are likely to occur in the 4 th week of March to the 1st week of April.
Source: Getty Images
What is the weather outlook for March to May in Kenya?
In related news, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued its forecast for the March–May (MAM) 2026 long rains, indicating that Kenya is likely to experience wetter-than-usual conditions.
The outlook, released on January 27 following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) in Nairobi, projected a 45% chance of above-average rainfall across central and western Kenya, as well as parts of Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Burundi, South Sudan, Djibouti, and northern Somalia.
ICPAC also reported a 40% probability of near-normal rainfall in northeastern and southwestern Kenya, coastal Tanzania, much of Somalia, and select areas of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
